Bitcoin (BTC) traded weaker Wednesday after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act , pushing BTC below $75,000 before it recovered above $80k. Despite the short-term weakness, on-chain analyst Willy Woo believes Bitcoin may have already established its market bottom and entered the early stages of a new bull market. In a Wednesday post on X, Woo assigned a 90% probability to the bottom being in, pointing to improving liquidity conditions and renewed participation from long-term investors. “I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long-term investor liquidity returning,” Woo stated . His comments came as the broader cryptocurrency market faced selling pressure after the CLARITY Act failed to pass a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate on September 15. The bill received 49 votes in favor and 50 against, falling short of the 60 votes required to advance. According to the analyst, the traditional cycle approach currently produces a much less convincing signal, with the consensus among analysts relying on those patterns at around 40%. “ Shaping my view is BTC’s liquidity structure; I’m deliberately avoiding historical cycle patterns which have been very successful to date in calling bottoms,” he said. Instead, Woo is watching Bitcoin’s liquidity structure and the return of capital from longer-term investors. He said the current structure remains bullish as long as investor flows continue to hold up. However, the pundit does not have a fixed timeline for how long the potential bull market could last. He noted that historical cycle patterns are becoming less reliable, making it difficult to determine whether the next advance could last several years. Woo’s view aligns with other on-chain indicators suggesting Bitcoin’s recent weakness may not necessarily mark the start of a prolonged bearish phase. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost recently noted that short-term Bitcoin holders have remained in profit for almost a month. On Monday, the analyst said this differs from previous recovery attempts, when profitable positions were quickly followed by renewed selling. The analysis showed about $168 billion in short-term holder Bitcoin in profit, compared with just over $100 billion in unrealized losses. Darkfost said similar behavior appeared around the transition out of the 2022-2023 bear market. Long-term holder activity has also shown signs of improvement, although analysts have stressed that historical patterns do not guarantee the same outcome this time. That said, amid this optimism, other market analysts remain cautious. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has warned that a significant correction in the S&P 500 could weigh heavily on Bitcoin because of its growing correlation with broader risk assets. “Launched during the Great Recession in 2009, Bitcoin has led the way up for risk assets and may now be leading the way back down,” McGlone stated Sunday. “ Bitcoin may be tracking toward its enduring pivot around $10,000, and one simple factor could get it there — about a 20% drawdown in the SPX that persists for a while, as has happened historically.” At press time, BTC was trading at $84,752, up 1.86% in the past 24 hours.

Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson has urged the crypto industry to move past the stalled Clarity Act and focus on adoption, as a separate Cardano-based RealFi project targets an October mainnet launch that could give ADA another catalyst. In a September 15 recording, Hoskinson addressed the collapse of the US crypto market structure bill, arguing that the industry should stop treating legislation as the answer to every problem. He said the failure of the Clarity Act marked the end of market structure legislation efforts in the Senate for 2026. Hoskinson also included Cardano among the crypto assets he considers commodities, alongside Bitcoin and XRP. “ For the things that aren’t that are truly commodities like Bitcoin, like Cardano, like XRP,” he said while discussing how crypto legislation could be divided into separate categories. Notably, rather than waiting for a broad regulatory framework, Hoskinson called for a step-by-step approach and encouraged the industry to continue building and bringing users into crypto. “ Move on. Close the chapter. Close the page. Get back to work. Get people to adopt crypto,” he said. His comments come as Cardano prepares for another potential infrastructure development. RealFi is targeting October 1 for a Cardano mainnet launch, although the date remains subject to regulatory, operational and commercial requirements. The project disclosed in August that its investment team had started purchasing reserve assets and that its stablecoin mint had entered the seven-figure range. The team had previously moved about $100,000 through venues and wallets as part of what John O’Connor described as the project’s “hardening phase.” Meanwhile, the planned RealFi product is designed around a reserve-backed dollar instrument. Its unstaked version is expected to use liquid assets such as tokenized money-market funds and liquid AAA-collateralized loan obligation ETFs, while the staked version can include private credit and carries a seven-day cooldown period. Moreover, RealFi’s progress could matter for Cardano’s stablecoin market, which stood at about $68 million at press time, per Defi Llama data from September 6. Native stablecoins accounted for roughly $22 million, while bridged assets represented approximately $43 million. That said, ADA price has come under renewed selling pressure following Monday’s Senate rejection of the Clarity Act. The decline has erased much of the token’s recent gains, along with those across the broader crypto market, after ADA had advanced around 10% over the previous seven days. However, the RealFi launch remains a target rather than a certainty, with the project still working through its reserve structure, operational requirements, and stress-testing process. If the October launch proceeds as planned, the amount of stablecoins minted and their adoption on Cardano could more clearly indicate whether RealFi is translating into meaningful network activity, potentially boosting ADA price. At press time, ADA was trading at $0.2488, up 3.67% in the past 24 hours.